Math & measurement
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The difference between the odds you took and the closing odds, expressed as a percentage: bet +150 on a line that closes +120 and you hold about +13.6% CLV. Because the close is the market's sharpest price, consistently positive CLV is the strongest known predictor of long-term winning.
CLV stabilizes much faster than win rate — variance can hide your true skill in wins and losses for hundreds of bets, but whether you systematically beat the closing number shows up quickly and persists.
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