Research
Experiments we actually ran, written up with the methodology, the numbers, and the limitations. Free to cite with attribution. No picks, no affiliate links — just what the data shows.
65% winner accuracy → −33% bankroll betting every pick, −50%+ betting only its “value” picks
A 65%-accurate NBA model still lost money: a full-season market-efficiency test
We built a walk-forward Elo model, predicted 1,200+ NBA games at 65% accuracy, and bet it against real closing lines. It lost — and its most confident disagreements with the market lost fastest.
Read the study →Same model, same method: NBA 65% winner accuracy vs NHL ~53% — a near coin-flip
How predictable is each sport? The same model called 65% of NBA winners — and 53% of NHL winners
An identical rating model run across full NBA and NHL seasons. Basketball was far more predictable than hockey — with direct consequences for variance, sample sizes, and staking by sport.
Read the study →How we compute everything
Fair no-vig odds, market consensus, EV, CLV, and out-of-sample validation — documented in full on the Methodology page.