Guides
The fundamentals, in full. Each guide is the complete treatment of one concept — the math worked through, what it’s worth in dollars, and where it stops helping. No picks, no affiliate links.
Line shopping: the complete guide
Why sportsbooks post different prices for the same game, exactly what shopping is worth in dollars and win-rate, how to do it without six tabs open, and its honest limits.
Read the guide →The vig: the complete guide
How to calculate the bookmaker's margin from any two prices, what it really costs you over a season, how much it varies by sport (measured across 315 games), and the realistic ways to pay less.
Read the guide →Closing Line Value: the complete guide
What CLV is, the exact math with worked examples, de-vigging, what a good number looks like, how to improve it — and the places it misleads you.
Read the guide →Which of these you actually need
The three guides are deliberately sequential, because each one only pays off if the one before it is in place. Read them in this order if you are starting out.
- FirstThe vig
You cannot judge whether a price is good until you know what the sportsbook is charging for it. Everything else is built on this one.
- ThenLine shopping
The only edge in betting that needs no forecasting skill at all — the same bet at a better price. Requires knowing what the margin is, which is why it comes second.
- FinallyClosing line value
How to tell whether any of it is working, on a sample far smaller than a win rate needs. This is the measurement the other two are aiming at.
A guide is the complete treatment of one concept, worth an hour. If you want a one-paragraph answer instead, the glossary defines the same ideas in plain English; if you want to run the numbers on your own bet, the free calculators do the arithmetic.
Put the theory to work
Free calculators for every concept in these guides, a glossary of 88 betting terms, and original research with the full methodology.