Spread to moneyline: what NFL favorites close at, point by point

The spread and the moneyline are two prices on the same game. One asks whether the favorite covers, the other whether it wins at all, and the market keeps them in step: the bigger the spread, the shorter the moneyline. Our board records both, so the relationship can be read straight off the closing prices.

The table

For 82 NFL games from opening night to the first game of week 7, we took the closing consensus spread and the closing consensus moneyline, then removed the margin from the moneyline pair. The favorite's median fair chance to win, by closing spread:

• 1.5 points: 51.8%, a fair price of −107 (7 games)
• 2.5: 56.0%, −127 (12 games)
• 3: 59.2%, −145 (10 games)
• 3.5: 62.7%, −168 (14 games)
• 6.5: 72.4%, −262 (5 games)
• 7: 74.5%, −292 (6 games)
• 7.5: 76.5%, −326 (4 games)

A fair price has the margin taken out, so the moneyline a book actually offers on the favorite is shorter than these. Each row is a different set of games, and some rows hold only four or five, so read the table for its shape rather than its decimals.

The jump across 3

From 2.5 to 3.5 the favorite's fair chance rises 6.7 points, from 56.0% to 62.7%. The one-point steps either side are smaller: 1.5 to 2.5 adds 4.2 points, and 6.5 to 7.5 adds 4.1. A point across 3 moves the moneyline more than any other point on the list, because so many games end there.

What the model says

The margin model behind our half-point calculator, fit to 6,223 regular-season games, gives a 3-point favorite a 59.6% chance to win, averaged across a home and a road favorite, and a 7-point favorite 71.4%. The board's 3-point median of 59.2% sits within half a point of it. The six 7-point favorites closed higher, at 74.5%; six games can't say whether that's the market or the sample.

• To compare a spread with a moneyline, compare win probabilities: convert the moneyline, and use a table like this one for the spread.
• A fair price is a reference, not a quote. What a book offers includes its margin.
• Nothing here is a pick.

Bankroll Guardian is a bet-tracking and analytics tool — not a sportsbook, and none of this is betting advice. Betting carries risk; please bet responsibly.