How far totals move before the game: NFL, NBA and NHL

A total opens, the market bets into it, and by the start it may sit somewhere else. How far it travels depends heavily on the sport. Our board records each game's consensus total — the line most books quote — several times a day, so the move from the first capture to the last can be measured.

What we measured

The games our board priced that started between 2026-10-11 and the evening of 2026-10-24: 29 in the NFL, 34 in the NBA from its opening night, and 96 in the NHL. For each, we compared the consensus total at our first pre-game capture with the one at our last. The last capture came a median 10 minutes before the start in the NBA and NHL and 30 minutes before kickoff in the NFL. The first came a median 26 hours earlier in the NBA and NHL, and about 11 days earlier in the NFL, whose lines go up well ahead.

The NFL total almost always moves

27 of 29 NFL totals closed somewhere other than where we first saw them. Thirteen moved two points or more, the largest by six, and the median move was a point and a half. Sixteen went down and eleven went up.

Eleven days leaves room for a lot to happen. An NFL total also sits in the 40s and 50s — 37.5 to 55.5 at the close in this sample — so a point and a half is a small slice of the number.

The NBA moves in a day

In about 26 hours the NBA total moved in 19 of 34 games. Nine of those moves were two points or more, the largest four, and the median move across all 34 games was one point. Closing totals ran from 219.5 to 244.5, so even a two-point move is under 1% of the number.

The NHL line barely moves

87 of 96 NHL totals never changed between the first capture and the last. The other nine moved by half a goal or one, never more. Every closing total was 5.5 or 6.5: 32 games at 5.5 and 64 at 6.5.

Hockey moves the price instead. In 38 of the 87 games where the line held, the price on the over moved by 10 cents or more — the distance from −110 to −120.

Reading a move

• Movement is market information, not a tip.
• A bet is graded on the line it was placed at. A total bet at 227.5 that closes at 229.5 holds a number the closing market no longer offers.
• Comparing your number with the closing one is what closing line value measures.

Bankroll Guardian is a bet-tracking and analytics tool — not a sportsbook, and none of this is betting advice. Betting carries risk; please bet responsibly.