Expected value (EV) calculator
Is the price actually +EV?
Expected value
+12.5%
+1.25 per bet
+EV — the price beats your estimate
These odds imply a 40% break-even win rate. Enter the win probability you actually believe — EV is positive when your estimate beats the odds.
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet would return if you could place it many times. It’s positive (+EV) when the price you’re getting is better than your true estimate of how often the bet wins, and negative (−EV) when it’s worse. Long-term winners chase +EV, not just winners.
The catch is your win probability — the calculator is only as good as that estimate. A solid starting point is the de-vigged market price (see our no-vig calculator). Bankroll Guardian estimates fair probabilities from the market and tracks the EV of every bet you log.
Track every bet automatically
Stop doing the math by hand. Bankroll Guardian logs your bets and shows P&L, ROI, CLV and more — free to start, no card required.