Dutching Calculator
Split a stake so every outcome returns the same — and see whether that certainty is a profit.
Dutching splits one stake across several outcomes so the return is identical whichever of them wins. It turns a set of prices into a certainty — but whether that certainty pays is decided entirely by the prices, not by the method.
Outcomes you are backing, in American odds
Total staked
£100.00
Returns (whichever wins)
£96.25
Profit
−£3.75
Market covered
103.89%
Stakes are split in proportion to each outcome’s implied probability, so every one returns the same £96.25. A margin of 3.89% costs 3.75% of your stake rather than 3.89% — the loss is measured against what you put in, not against the overround.
Certainty is not the same as profit
Add up the implied probability of everything you are backing. Under 100% and your guaranteed return is a guaranteed profit — that is an arbitrage, and it is rare. Over 100%, which is nearly always, the excess is the bookmaker’s margin and you have just agreed to pay all of it.
The cost is exact. A market summing to 103.89% takes 3.75% of your stake, not 3.89% — the loss is measured against what you staked, so it works out as (total − 1) ÷ total. Dutching every outcome of a market is the most reliable way to pay the vig in full.
That is not an argument against the tool. It is an argument for knowing which side of 100% you are on before you place anything, which is what the calculator shows first.
Related: arbitrage calculator · hedge calculator · no-vig & hold calculator · the Guardian Line
Common questions
- What is Dutching?
- Splitting one stake across several outcomes of the same event so that your return is identical whichever of them comes in. The stakes are divided in proportion to each outcome's implied probability, which is what makes every return match.
- How do you calculate Dutching stakes?
- Convert each price to an implied probability, add them up, and give each outcome the share of your stake matching its probability divided by that total. Your guaranteed return is the total stake divided by the summed probability — so the summed probability decides everything.
- Does Dutching guarantee a profit?
- No. It guarantees the same result whichever backed outcome wins, and that result is usually a loss. Only when the prices sum to under 100% implied probability is the certain outcome a profit, and that is an arbitrage rather than an ordinary Dutch. Back every outcome of a normal market and the excess over 100% is the bookmaker's margin, which you pay in full.
- How much does Dutching a whole market cost?
- Exactly the overround, measured against your stake. A market summing to 103.89% costs you 3.75% of what you put in — the relationship is (total − 1) ÷ total, not simply the excess. So a 3.89% margin is a 3.75% loss, every time, with certainty.
- When is Dutching actually useful?
- When you want to back several outcomes and care about the shape of the result rather than maximising it — covering two or three runners you think are underpriced, or converting an existing position into a fixed one. It is a staking method, not an edge, so it makes sense once you already have a reason to back those specific outcomes.
- What is the difference between Dutching and arbitrage?
- The arithmetic is the same; the prices are not. Dutching is the method of splitting stakes for an equal return. Arbitrage is the case where the prices you found sum to under 100%, making that equal return a guaranteed profit. Every arbitrage is Dutched; most Dutching is not arbitrage.
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