The book's edge
Hold
Hold, vig and overround are three views of one number
They get used interchangeably and shouldn't be. Overround is the raw excess over 100% — at −110/−110, 104.76% means an overround of 4.76 points. Hold is that excess as a share of everything staked: 4.76 ÷ 104.76 = 4.55%. Vig is the everyday word for the same commission, usually quoted at the price level rather than the market level.
The distinction matters once margins get large. A market summing to 130% has a 30-point overround but a 23.1% hold — a seven-point gap. Quoting the overround where you mean the hold overstates what the book actually keeps.
Why parlays hold so much more
A parlay multiplies the legs' prices together, which means it multiplies the margin too. Three −110 legs pay about +596. If each leg were a genuine coin flip, the fair price would be +700 — so the book keeps the difference, and the hold jumps from 4.55% on a single bet to about 13%.
This compounds, and it compounds fast. The table below assumes every leg is a fair 50/50 priced at −110, which is the friendliest possible assumption; correlated legs and same-game parlays are typically priced harder still.
What hold looks like in real markets
We measured the consensus margin across 315 games and 3,437 priced sides in six sports. Straight two-way markets clustered between 4.54% and 4.78%, with boxing an outlier at 5.98% — so the textbook 4.5% is a fair rule of thumb for mainstream markets and an underestimate for niche ones.
Futures and player props typically hold well above any of these. A twenty-runner outright market can sum to 120% or more, because each additional priced side is another place to add margin.
| Legs | Book pays | Fair price | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −110 | +100 | 4.5% |
| 2 | +264 | +300 | 8.9% |
| 3 | +596 | +700 | 13.0% |
| 4 | +1228 | +1500 | 17.0% |
| 5 | +2436 | +3100 | 20.8% |
| 6 | +4741 | +6300 | 24.4% |
| 10 | +64,208 | +102,300 | 37.2% |
Each leg is assumed to be a genuine coin flip priced at −110. Real legs are rarely 50/50 and same-game parlays are priced for correlation, so these are best-case figures, not worst-case.
| Sport | Games | Consensus | Best available | Removed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 150 | 4.60% | 2.28% | 50% |
| Boxing | 62 | 5.98% | 4.26% | 29% |
| UFC / MMA | 49 | 4.75% | 2.02% | 57% |
| NCAAF | 27 | 4.54% | 2.36% | 48% |
| WNBA | 19 | 4.78% | 2.13% | 55% |
| CFL | 8 | 4.55% | 2.14% | 53% |
Consensus margin across our own captured odds. Straight markets cluster tightly; the spread between sports is smaller than the spread between bet types.
Source: What the vig actually costs, by sport — 315 games, 3,437 priced sides, June–July 2026.
The common mistake: reading hold as your expected loss
Hold describes what the book keeps across balanced action on a market — it is not a per-bettor forecast. If you only ever bet one side and you pick better than chance, your loss rate is lower than the hold; if you pick worse, it's higher. Hold tells you the size of the obstacle, not your result. What it does say precisely is how much better than 50% you must be to break even: 52.4% at −110.
Related terms
Common questions
- What is hold in sports betting?
- Hold is the sportsbook's margin on a complete market, found by converting every side to implied probability and summing them. A fair market sums to 100%; the excess is the margin. A standard −110/−110 spread holds about 4.5% of everything staked.
- What is the difference between hold and overround?
- They measure the same margin from different angles. Overround is the raw excess over 100% (4.76 points at −110/−110); hold expresses that as a share of total stakes (4.55%). They're close on cheap markets and diverge sharply on expensive ones — a 130% market is a 30-point overround but a 23.1% hold.
- What is a typical hold percentage?
- For mainstream two-way markets, roughly 4.5–5%. In our measurements across six sports the consensus margin ran 4.54% to 4.78%, with boxing an outlier at 5.98%. Parlays, futures and player props hold considerably more — a three-leg parlay is around 13%.
- How do I calculate hold myself?
- Convert each side of the market to implied probability, add them, subtract 100 to get the overround, then divide by the sum to get hold. Our free no-vig calculator does it from any two prices and also returns the fair, margin-free odds.
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