How often is a game a coin flip? Close moneylines by sport

Even money is +100: risk 100 to win 100, an implied 50%. Real games rarely sit exactly there, but plenty come close, and how often depends heavily on the sport.

What we counted

For each game we took the closing consensus moneyline, removed the margin, and read the favorite's fair chance to win. A favorite under 55% is priced within about −122 of even. The sample: 82 NFL games from opening night to the first game of week 7, 225 college football games from 2026-08-29 through 2026-10-24, and 34 NBA games from opening night on 2026-10-20 through 2026-10-24.

Sport by sport

• NBA: 10 of 34 games had a favorite under 55% (29.4%), and half had one under 60%. The median favorite was 60.4%.
• NFL: 13 of 82 under 55% (15.9%) and 32 under 60% (39.0%). The median favorite was 62.7%.
• College football: 22 of 225 under 55% (9.8%) and 57 under 60% (25.3%). The median favorite was 72.3%.

College football is the lopsided board: a third of its games, 75 of 225, had a favorite at 80% or more, against 4.9% of NFL games and 5.9% of NBA games. The NBA's first week was the closest of the three.

What a coin flip costs

A true coin flip at even money breaks even. At −110 on both sides it doesn't: each side needs 52.38% to break even, and the two prices together imply 104.76%. That extra 4.76% is the book's margin, and on a near-even game there is no favorite's price to hide it in.

• +100 and −100 are the same price: even money.
• −110 implies 52.4% before the margin comes off. On a genuine coin flip, the fair number is 50%.
• Nothing here is a pick.

Bankroll Guardian is a bet-tracking and analytics tool — not a sportsbook, and none of this is betting advice. Betting carries risk; please bet responsibly.