Odds & prices
Implied probability
The win probability a betting price represents. For decimal odds it is 1 ÷ odds (2.50 → 40%); for −110 American it is 52.4%. Posted prices include the sportsbook's margin, so a market's implied probabilities sum to more than 100% until the vig is removed.
Implied probability is the bridge between all odds formats and the basis of every value calculation: a bet is +EV only when your estimate of the true probability exceeds the implied probability of the price you're getting.
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